Evaluation of the San Francisco Bay Area Second Rail Crossing

Principal Investigator

Giovanni Circella

Additional Researchers

Tho V Le, Ran Sun


Three revolutions in transportation—shared mobility, electrification and vehicle automation—will fundamentally change the way individuals live, work, socialize, and travel in cities. Key challenges facing decision makers of whether to build the proposed second rail crossing include travel-related uncertainty and future travel demand. As such, we will evaluate current travel patterns in the Northern California Megaregion with a focus on the San Francisco Bay Area as a destination. This will include examination of current trip patterns, directionality, mode share, and impacts on traffic congestion. We will assist the CCJPA with an assessment of the current market for transportation to and from the region, and the extent to which this market is currently intercepted by the existing public transportation options vs. fulfilled by the use of private vehicles on the highway network. We will review existing documents from planning agencies in the region, future forecasts, and assessments from other sources (e.g., universities, metropolitan planning organizations [MPOs], etc.). We will identify opportunities and limitations to learn from these documents. The project will inform CCJPA and decision makers on current travel patterns in the region of study (baseline conditions) and will inform the use (and limitations to the use) of available approaches and modeling tools to explore future travel patterns. For example, the study will examine the utility and limitations of a scenario planning approach  and related uncertainties in future years when transformative changes via the three transportation revolutions are also in play.


This research is supported by the Capitol Corridor Joint Power Authority (CCJPA)