Global Catalogue of Zero Emission Vehicle Goals, Ambitions and Targets

A study By Mollie Cohen D’Agostino, Anaya Ward, Sam Fuller, and Jen-Ann Lee

UC Davis Policy Institute for Energy, Environment, and the Economy

Database Last updated: December 2021 (and quarterly)

Introduction

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A. Taxonomy of ZEV Goal Types

ZEV goals vary considerably in terms of specific targets. The following are a breakdown of the types of goals we found in our survey.

Formality Level

There are different levels of formality among the goals. We built off of a classification schema developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), but we refined their definitions to suit our sample, and employ the following three goal types:

Ambition: This is a more informal goal, pledge, or promise, made by a leader of a governing body or private organization, which has no legal ramifications or requirements.
Proposal: This will be an official goal pending approval by the necessary decision-making authorities.
Official Target: This is an official goal that has been approved by the necessary authorities (e.g. statute, regulation, executive order).

Numeration Type

There are two main types of numerical goals:

Percentage goals- displayed in either percentage, e.g. “100% goal by 2040”,
Absolute numerical goals: Goals displayed in real values (e.g. 100,000 vehicle sales by 2050)

Specific Goal Targets

Furthermore, there are different targets within the ZEV sector that can be the target of a goal. on-road vehicles or charging stations, e.g. “We pledge to sell ten million electric vehicles by 2030.” Both of these goal types can also be broken down into the categories of vehicle production, vehicle sales, and vehicles on the road.

Goal Targets:

Vehicles Manufactured
Vehicle Sold
Vehicles on the road (sometimes referred to as Vehicle stock)
Vehicles in a shared fleet (e.g. vehicles operating on the Uber app)
Charging Stations

Additional Vehicle Targets by Class/Model

Lastly vehicle class or vehicle drive train is also specified in a large number of goals. Targets have addressed:

Fuel Trains:

All Electric Vehicles (e.g. Battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell)
Hybrid and Electric vehicles
Only Hybrid vehicles
Only Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Other Vehicle Classes:

Light Duty Electric Vehicles
Medium and Heavy Duty Electric Vehicles
Public Transit Vehicles
Government Fleet Vehicles (which can include public transit vehicles)
Two-wheeled vehicles (e.g. E-bikes, scooters)

B. Methodology - ZEV Goals Catalogue

We collected statements of EV goals (or a lack thereof) from 203 countries, 50 U.S. states, and 20 car companies representing many brands. Developing a way to compare these goals so that apples-to-apples comparisons can be made, required significant research and analytical effort. Many goals are percentage based (e.g. 100% ZEV sales by 2050) other goals are an absolute numerical goal (e.g. 650,000 ZEVs purchased by 2040). These are difficult to compare. Future research aims to better enable cross-comparisons between these categorical goal types to understand the numbers of vehicles pledged across the globe and to track the progress towards these goals.

The crux of our methodology for collecting the goals data is from repeated web browser searches using the following combination of terms: [state/country name/company] and "ZEV” or “EV and “goal". We also searched using the search terms [country name] and “ZEV” or "EV target". We browse approximately the top 20 listings in each search query and select sources prioritizing information from public sector websites where available, research organizations, and other nongovernmental organizations, as well as news media sources.

We began our data collection for 194 countries using a list of all UN member countries (plus Taiwan). For U.S. states we began with the full list of U.S. states. (plus the District of Columbia). For the select four Canadian states and companies our search is not intended to be as comprehensive, and we began with a list of those who have voiced ZEV goals using more general web search terms for auto original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and transportation network companies (TNCs).

C. Suggest an Update to a ZEV Goal

Key Findings

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