For a full list of Institute of Transportation Studies Research Projects
See the ITS-Davis Publications Database

 Future research activities of the 3 Revolutions Future Mobility Program include:

  • Data collection and analysis of behavioral and attitudinal data on shared mobility, the adoption of electric vehicles and of connected and automated vehicles;
  • Forecasting and simulation models to predict impacts on activity participation, travel patterns, vehicle ownership, and vehicle miles traveled;
  • Behavioral experiments to understand the impacts of the adoption of new transportation technologies, under varying conditions;
  • Policy analysis and simulation of future transportation scenarios; and
  • Analysis of environmental, economic and equity impacts of emerging transportation trends and evolving lifestyles.

3 Revolutions Future Mobility Program Research Highlights

Three Revolutions in Urban Transportation

Released May 3rd, 2017

The 3 Revolutions Policy Initiative is a proud partner on a newly released report titled, Three Revolutions in Urban Transportation. The research team, led by Lewis Fulton, co-director at the Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS) program of the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis), partnered with the Institute of Transportation Development and Policy (ITDP). 

The report delves into the societal impacts of rapidly approaching developments in transportation technology: vehicle automation, electrification and shared mobility. The key findings point towards the latter revolution, shared mobility (which includes pooled ride-hailing, carpools, public transport, etc.) as the linchpin in ensuring that the revolutions produce the most public and environmental benefits. Without a concurrent shift away from private vehicle ownership and toward ride-pooling, the potential for electric, autonomous vehicles to improve traffic, emissions and livability is limited. 

The report introduces significant policy implications associated with the revolutions. In order to achieve the best-case scenario identified in the report (see image to right for details on scenarios studied) an ambitious set of policies will be required. These include policies to promote and incentivize vehicle automation and electrification, but the most important policies will be those that encourage shared mobility, public and active transport, and land-use planning that helps to shorten most vehicle trips.  

Get the Full Report Here

Survey Released by the 3 Revolutions Policy Initiative

The Future Car Is Driverless, Shared, and Electric 

March 13th, 2017

Top Transportation Experts Say Creative Policies Needed Now To Avoid Pitfalls

Quick Summary of survey:

  • Transportation experts say three technology revolutions are driving rapid change: shared, electric and automated vehicles
  • Government awareness and involvement are essential to ensure driverless vehicles benefit everyone and do not harm the environment
  • Google, Tesla, Uber, GM and Lyft expected to lead innovation in shared, electric and autonomous vehicles.

The nation’s top transportation experts see rapid change in transportation as a result of three major technology revolutions: shared, electric and automated vehicles. That’s according to a survey by the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis (ITS-Davis). The group also released a set of policy briefs, described below, which were guest authored by leading transportation policy experts.

Forty policymakers, researchers, and representatives from government, nonprofit organizations and the technology and auto industries participated in the survey, which was developed in connection with the launch of ITS-Davis’ new Policy Initiative, “3 Revolutions: Sharing, Electrification and Automation.”

“For the first time in half a century, real transformative innovations are coming to the world of passenger transportation,” said Dan Sperling, director of ITS-Davis and the new 3 Revolutions Policy Initiative. “This survey shows us that with thoughtful collaboration and community-facing policies, these changes would lead to increased equity, reduced vehicle travel, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. We need to be creative in order to steer these innovations to the public interest.”

The 3 Revolutions Policy Initiative addresses the big policy questions related to these new technologies, and the partnerships needed to bring the greatest social and market benefit.

Survey Highlights

  • Seventy percent of survey participants think fully driverless vehicles will account for more than 20 percent of vehicles sold by 2040.
  • Eighty-eight percent think commercially offered shared rides will make up more than five percent of all U.S. passenger miles by 2030, and 78 percent think commercially offered shared rides will account for more than 20 percent of U.S. passenger miles traveled by 2040.
  • Seventy percent also think that by 2050, the majority of vehicles used commercially for ride and car sharing in the nation will be zero emissions vehicles, including battery, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell electric vehicles.

Almost all of the survey participants selected California as the state most likely to embrace all three transportation trends.

When respondents were asked to specify which companies are best positioned to capitalize on the revolution in autonomous, shared, and electric vehicles, 67 percent listed Google, 64 percent named Tesla and Uber, and 48 percent chose Lyft and General Motors.

“The results of this survey suggest that disruptive technologies are coming from both inside and outside automotive,” said Peter Kosak, Executive Director, Urban Mobility and Maven at General Motors. “In the end, partnerships -- including working relationships with governments and communities -- are likely essential to a rapid and successful transition.”

Policies Could Help Avoid Inequalities and Emissions

Without policy actions, 77 percent of survey respondents said that the benefits of shared, automated vehicles will not be evenly distributed across income levels, and 80 percent said that sales of automated vehicles will result in more greenhouse gas emissions.

“The State of California has programs in place to fully support the rapid transition of the vehicle fleet to zero-emission vehicles, both battery electric and fuel cell,” said Richard W. Corey, CARB Executive Officer.  “This new survey underscores the need for the state to continue to work closely with research institutions like the ITS and others.  We will have a growing need for robust data and analysis to develop the incentives and programs to ensure the inevitable shift to driverless cars, and more shared-transportation choices, works hand-in-glove with the expanding zero-emission vehicle market to help California achieve our climate and air quality goals." 

The 3 Revolutions Policy Initiative addresses the big policy questions related to these new technologies, and the partnerships needed to bring the greatest social and market benefit.